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Has the market bottomed out?

The base rate has again been held at 0.5% in line with expectations, as the government look to establish if their quantitative easing strategy is working.

However, the question on everyone's lips is: has the housing market bottomed out?

Contracting and home ownership have one thing in common, both are largely driven by confidence. What we are now starting to see is that confidence is returning to both sectors, albeit for different reasons.

Let's take contracting. I have spoken to a number of contractors who, at the beginning of last year, were looking for shelter from what was happening in the economy at large; and wanting to go back to employed roles. Some did, others didn't and continued contracting, although most suffered a decrease in their earnings. However, I have recently spoken to a large number of individuals who are entering the world of contracting for the first time, due to the lack of security a permanent role brings against a backdrop of rising unemployment.

The housing market reveals a similar paradox. At the beginning of last year many contractors decided to defer buying decisions, and/or re-mortgaging decisions against a back drop of falling housing prices and lowering interest rates - and rightly so!

However, things are starting to change as housing indices are at best demonstrating  a rise in house prices; and at worst, a decline in house prices close to 0%.

I've always been a firm believer that you cannot predict the bottom of any market, it about looking at the relevant indices and making a judgement call. My prediction is we are now near the bottom of the market, a sentiment echoed by others in the mortgage arena, and at long last we are seeing people return to the market. However, estate agents will lead you to believe that the recovery is far stronger than it is really at the moment.

Behaviours are largely driven by confidence and today another report has added house prices rose by 2.6 per cent in May, the first increase in four months and the biggest jump since October 2002, giving further hope that the market could be nearing the bottom, according to new figures from Halifax.

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contractor mortgages made easy
17th June 2009